Expert Elicitation: Can Variation In Elicited Distributions Be Explained By Expert Heterogeneity?

Expert Probability Elicitation Tools

of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under award number 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security, or the University of Southern California, or CREATE. Expert Probability Elicitation Tools Stephen C. Hora, University of Souther...

Expert Judgement Elicitation 2002 : 19

How Expert Should an Expert System Be?

A computer system which aids computer engineers in fault diagnosis is described. The system, called CRIB (Computer Retrieval Incidence Bank) is shown to fit into the class of pattern-directed inference systems. Emphasis is placed on the "before" and "after" phases of system generation and it is shown why, to be called an expert system, these phases are important. The forms of knowledge used in ...

How Expert Should an Expert System Be?

A computer system which a i d s computer e n g i n eers i n f a u l t d i a g n o s i s i s d e s c r i b e d . The sys tem, c a l l e d CRIB (Computer R e t r i e v a l I nc idence Bank) i s shown t o f i t i n t o the c l a s s o f p a t t e r n d i r e c t e d i n f e r e n c e sys tems. Emphasis is p laced on the " b e f o r e " and " a f t e r " phases o f system g e n e r a t i o n and i ...

Optimal expert elicitation to reduce interval uncertainty

Reducing uncertainty is an important problem in many applications such as risk and reliability analysis, system design, etc. In this paper, we study the problem of optimally querying experts to reduce interval uncertainty. Surprisingly, this problem has received little attention in the past, while similar issues in preference elicitation or social choice theory have witnessed a rising interest....